When you consider all of the domestic competitions in the English calendar, the EFL cup is almost certainly the black sheep of the ‘family’ amongst those that feature top-flight clubs.
Clubs play weakened sides in the early stages as they look to preserve their top talent for the games that matter most in the league or in European competitions. Attendances can be sparse as fans prefer to save their money rather than attend a midweek match and see a watered down team face another similarly set up.
Indeed, there are some top flight matches in recent seasons who bemoan the distraction that the competition can provide.
That all changes, however, when you reach the latter stages and the potential for winning silverware becomes palpable. The final this year will be contested between Manchester United and Southampton, and the prospect of winning a trophy is equally important to both for very different reasons.
Manchester United have a recent history of success to look back on. They dominated the domestic game for years under Sir Alex Ferguson and remained competitive at the top of European competition. Recent seasons, thought, with the exception of the FA Cup last season, have been barren and new coach Jose Mourinho will welcome the chance to win his first piece of silverware for the club.
Southampton fans on the other side are excited purely at the prospect of competing in a final. The club has long had a reputation as one of the most stable and well run in the domestic game with a conveyor belt of talented home grown players and an excellent recruitment strategy. This match represents the opportunity for the club to take the next step towards establishing themselves as a force in the domestic game.
But where this final be won and lost?
United should focus attacks down their left
The news that the Armenian international Henrik Mkhitaryan picked up a knock in the Europa League tie with St Ettiene will be a blow to United. The attacking midfielder has been one of the club’s key players in recent weeks now that he has fully adapted to the rigours of English domestic football.
With the situation on the right of the attack looking uncertain, United should instead focus on the left-hand side where the Frenchman Anthony Martial has found an impressive vein of form. The quick attacker has played his way back in to contention in the first team, having previously fallen out of favour with Mourinho.
Southampton have a strong central core to their team with the Spaniard Oriel Romeu shielding the space in front of the defensive line and displaying the form that once saw him tipped to become a regular part of the Barcelona first team.
The Portuguese right-back Cedric Soares, on the other hand, is inconsistent at times in his defensive duties. He can also be isolated against attackers depending on the characteristics of the player who is situated on the right of the Southampton midfield.
If United are able to get Martial in to the game from the early stages then we should see Cedric pinned back and unable to contribute to the attacking phase, as we would normally see. This would in turn force the Southampton defensive block to shift across to cover, thus creating more space centrally for United to exploit.
Southampton need to capitalise on central spaces
Whilst Southampton are strong centrally, the same is not always true of United, who can struggle with the space between their defensive and midfield lines.
In the January transfer window Southampton added the Italian international forward Manolo Gabbiadini to their squad from Serie A side Napoli. The Italian possesses excellent tactical intelligence and his movement across and off of the front line could well be the key factor in deciding the game.
Ander Herrera has impressed in the United midfield in recent months but he cannot be described as a defensive midfielder, instead preferring to play in advanced areas and link play. Paul Pogba partners Herrera and again he is more focussed on the attacking side of the game.
We could see Michael Carrick as the deepest controlling midfielder and whilst there is no doubting his quality on the ball, his lack of pace could prove to be a liability should Southampton be able to overload the central areas with players coming deep from attack and moving forward from the midfield strata.
With players of the quality of James Ward-Prowse and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg in the middle of the park, they possess the quality to penetrate the space occupied by the deepest midfielder and the ability to support the ball through vertical runs from the midfield.
Southampton were extremely impressive in defeating Liverpool over two legs in the semi-final of this competition and a similar standard of performance will be required if they are to overcome United and lift the trophy.
Conclusion
This match is far from a foregone conclusion, despite United entering the final as the favourites to win the trophy.
Southampton may have been inconsistent in their league form so far this season but in the EFL Cup they have been excellent throughout, with their defence in particular proving all but impregnable. The first twenty minutes of the match should prove key as both sides will look to seize the initiative and control the tempo of the game.
If either side can get an early goal then that should go a long way to settling the match. United have the pace and attacking potential to cause Southampton real problems should they access the wide areas early.
If I were a betting man then my money would go on Southampton taking the trophy. Luckily for me and for my bank balance, though, I am not.
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